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受资金管制影响,中国投资者风光不再

2017-05-19 09:07:52 财富中文网 

  多年来,现金充裕的中国投资者在全球饱受热捧。不过如今,他们的现金却失去了光芒。

  中国正在加大力度阻止资金外流。此举使得国内外投资者对于在这个全球第二大经济体内外完成交易显得信心不足。

  投资银行瑞士联合银行(UBS)欧洲、中东和非洲并购业务主任塞韦林·布里泽表示,过去两年中,中国投资者的身影活跃在各种交易中,他们很受欢迎。

  他说:“客户在以前会问,能不能确保让中国投资者参加。如今,情况正好相反:他们会问,因为中国投资方面临的国内问题,能不能在竞标时排除他们。”

  交易商表示,许多中国公司无法完成交易,因为他们得不到官方许可,没办法把人民币换成外汇。

  在此之前,从去年年底起,中国当局就开始收紧对资金外流的限制,约束官员所称的“不合理”对外投资。国际金融研究所(The Institute of International Finance)估计,去年中国外流的资金高达7,250亿美元,创造了历史记录,今年情况可能更甚。

  去年,人民币对美元的汇率下滑6.5%,这是1994年以来跌幅最大的一次,也促使央行动用数千亿美元储备,以免这次下滑演变成暴跌。

  中国的外汇管理机构国家外汇管理局未回应对此事的评论请求。

  影响

  中国当局的举措产生了显著的影响。

  中国在去年12月的海外直接投资(ODI)同比下滑了40%,仅有84.1亿美元,这也是2016年最低的一个月。今年1月,中国企业购买海外房地产的数量也出现跳水。

  全球股票指数提供商明晟(MSCI)表达了对中国采取措施限制资本外流,以及搁置新期货交易合同的计划的关注。因为潜在的外方担心他们无法把获取的人民币利润带出中国。

  The Wrap网站在近日表示,中国大型综合企业和影院连锁运营商大连万达(Dalian Wanda)曾计划以10亿美元收购美国娱乐集团Dick Clark Productions Inc,却因为无法把资金带出中国,未能得到监管方的许可而流产。

  另一个案例中,涉入某项目的一位顾问表示,中国投资方没有得到当局的许可,无法将人民币兑换成3,000万美元,完成与美方的交易。他们计划以1亿美元投资美国住宅房地产的方案因此未能实现。

  法律公司Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe上海分公司的合伙人孙杰称:“现在卖方都会要求提供一定的证明。从他们的角度来看,这种担忧是合情合理的。”

  不过,律师也表示,尽管中国监管方开始更严格地审查提议的交易,但这并不代表他们关上了境外投资的大门。

  孙杰称,如果交易在经济上有意义,就会得到监管方的批准。例如,如果一家钢铁制造公司想要收购足球俱乐部,就“不太可能”被通过。

  “吓坏了”

  帮助中国企业对外投资的基金公司,如中国东方资产管理股份有限公司,已经改变了战术。这家公司之前为面向欧美房地产的基金募集资金。公司的一位高管表示,如今他们把目光转向了离岸金融市场。

  该公司拒绝了正式采访的请求。

  律师和银行家表示,各公司如果能够获得境外资金,也会尝试绕过申请外汇购买的过程。

  一位不愿透露姓名的上海并购律师表示:“现在每笔交易都在优先寻求境外资金的支持,而不是获取资金监管方的许可。”

  迪罗基(Dealogic)的数据显示,中国公司在2016年创纪录地发行了1,110亿美元的境外美元债券,较之2015年的880亿美元有大幅上涨。穆迪评级服务的副总经理伊凡·钟表示,这些资金一部分已经用于海外投资。

  中国大型企业海航集团去年宣布,公司对外交易的金额达到了约200亿美元。而汤森路透的数据显示,该公司2016年至少在境外借贷了170.5亿美元。

  追踪中国直接投资的咨询公司Rhodium Group表示,整体来看,去年中国对外投资的规模达到了历史最高,不过本来还可能要高得多。2016年,涉及中国公司、金额高达740亿美元的30笔交易在美国和欧洲搁浅,同样为历史最高。

  Rhodium合伙人、哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)兼职教授丹尼尔·罗森表示:“现在,每个人都被资本管制吓坏了。”

  不过,在温哥华的高端社区West Side,房地产经纪人汤姆·葛雷卡对中国的政策不太担心。这里很受外国投资者青睐,住房的价格高达几百万美元。

  他表示,过去,中国投资者就试图寻找绕过资本管制的方式。

  他说:“这用不了多长时间。人们真的希望来到这里。我认为资本管制阻止不了他们。”(财富中文网)

  译者:严匡正

  For years, cash -rich Chinese investors have been highly sought after the world over. Now, their cash is losing its cachet.

  China's increasing efforts to prevent capital from leaving the country are eroding the confidence of domestic and foreign investors about getting deals done inside and outside of the world's second-biggest economy.

  Chinese bidders had become ubiquitous in deals in the past two years and were welcomed, said Severin Brizay, head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa mergers and acquisitions for the investment bank UBS.

  "Clients were asking if it would be possible to make sure they are involved. Now, we are seeing the reverse: some clients are asking if we can do it without Chinese bidders because of the domestic challenges they face," he said.

  Dealmakers said many Chinese firms are unable to close deals because they can not secure official permission to transfer yuan into foreign exchange.

  This follows a series of measures by authorities since late last year to tighten restrictions on capital outflows and rein in what officials have called "irrational" outbound investment. The Institute of International Finance estimated capital outflows surged to a record $725 billion last year and it expects even higher outflows this year.

  The yuan fell more than 6.5% last year against the dollar, its steepest decline since 1994, prompting the central bank to spend hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves to prevent the slide from turning into a slump.

  China's foreign exchange regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, did not respond to requests for comment.

  IMPACT

  The measures by authorities have had a dramatic impact.

  Overseas direct investment (ODI) by Chinese in December fell almost 40% from a year earlier to $8.41 billion, the lowest monthly level in 2016. In January, overseas property purchases by Chinese corporations plunged.

  Global stock index provider MSCI expressed concern about the capital outflow measures and China shelved plans for a new crude futures contract because potential foreign participants were worried they would not be able to take yuan profits out of the country.

  Chinese conglomerate and cinema chain operator Dalian Wanda's proposed $1 billion purchase of U.S. entertainment group Dick Clark Productions Inc collapsed over problems getting currency out of China and regulatory approval, online website The Wrap said on Monday.

  In another case, a Chinese investor was unable to get permission from authorities to exchange yuan into $30 million to close a U.S. deal, a consultant involved in the project said. The planned $100 million investment in a U.S. residential property portfolio fell through.

  "Sellers nowadays will request certain proof," said Jeffrey Sun, a Shanghai-based partner at the legal practice of Orrick, Herrington and Sutcliffe. “From the sellers’ side, the worry is justified.”

  Still, while Chinese regulators are putting proposed deals under greater scrutiny, it does not mean they are shutting the door on outbound investment, lawyers said.

  Regulators will approve deals if they make economic sense, Sun said. For example, a steel manufacturer buying a soccer club "is unlikely" to be approved, he said.

  "FREAKED OUT"

  Fund managers that help Chinese invest abroad, such as China Orient Summit Capital, are changing tack. The firm had been raising money in China for funds to target U.S. and European real estate. It is now looking to raise money in offshore markets, an executive at the company said.

  China Orient Summit Capital declined a request for a formal interview.

  Companies are also looking to avoid the approval process for buying foreign exchange if they have access to funds outside of China, lawyers and bankers said.

  "Every deal at this point is looking for some way to identify offshore funds rather than deal with the capital controls," said an M&A lawyer in Shanghai, who declined to be identified.

  Chinese companies raised a record $111 billion in offshore dollar bonds in 2016, according to data from Dealogic, up from $88 billion in 2015. Some of those funds would have been earmarked for overseas investments, said Ivan Chung, associate managing director at Moody’s ratings service.

  Chinese conglomerate HNA Group announced about $20 billion in outbound deals last year. Thomson Reuters data shows it raised at least $17.05 billion in loans abroad in 2016.

  Overall, China's outbound investment hit a record last year but could have been much higher, said the Rhodium Group, a consultancy that tracks direct investment from China. It said a record 30 deals worth $74 billion and involving Chinese companies were canceled in the United States and Europe in 2016.

  "Right now everybody is thoroughly freaked out by capital controls," Daniel Rosen, a Rhodium partner and adjunct professor at Columbia University, said.

  Still, on Vancouver's upscale West Side, a neighborhood popular with foreign buyers where the price of homes runs in the millions of dollars, realtor Tom Gradecak was less worried about Chinese demand.

  In the past, Chinese investors have tended to find ways around capital controls, he said.

  "It won't take them long," he said. "The people that really want to come here, I don't think it's going to stop them.

(责任编辑:刘静 HZ010)
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